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RAND Corporation analysts envision a scenario where Putin's death in 2027 leads to a power struggle in Russia, followed by a hybrid campaign against NATO and a potential limited invasion of Estonia. Initially, a ceasefire with Ukraine is accepted, but tensions escalate as Russia redirects its focus towards NATO. The scenario outlines a gradual increase in hybrid attacks on European infrastructure, exploiting divisions within NATO. A crisis in South America diverts U.S. attention from Europe, further emboldening Russia. By 2030, Estonia becomes a target for limited military action, testing NATO's unity and response capabilities.
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