economedia.ro/bcr-research-economia-romaniei-va-cr

A structural economic model by BCR Research indicates that Romania's economic growth is primarily driven by internal factors, while inflation is significantly affected by external shocks. The model predicts a 1% contraction in 2026, followed by a gradual recovery with growth rates of 1.9% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Inflation is expected to decrease from 8.4% in 2026 to 3% by 2028. The report highlights that internal demand, supply, and the country's risk premium account for about 70% of unexpected economic growth variations. External factors, such as eurozone demand and oil prices, explain roughly half of inflation variations. Financial shocks can have significant impacts on the economy, often with delayed effects on GDP. The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding the interplay between internal and external factors in shaping Romania's economic landscape.