economedia.ro/analiza-erste-pachetul-fiscal-din-20

Erste Group Research estimates that the fiscal measures adopted in 2025 could reduce Romania's economic growth by about 1 percentage point in 2026. The analysis indicates that the real GDP would be 1.3% lower than in a scenario without these measures. The report emphasizes the importance of timing and pace in implementing fiscal adjustments, especially when the economy is underperforming. It highlights that measures affecting household purchasing power, such as VAT increases and freezing pensions, have a more significant negative impact on economic activity. The analysis also notes that the fiscal multiplier varies over time, with recent estimates suggesting a lower impact of tax changes on GDP compared to previous years. Overall, the report underscores the need for careful fiscal planning to avoid exacerbating economic downturns.