In March 2020, the actual number of COVID-19 infections was significantly underr...

Verdict details

Confidence: 95%

Evidence quality: PUTERNICĂ

**What was analyzed:** An article from March 31, 2020, that synthesizes the main scientific unknowns at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (underreporting of cases, mortality rate, symptoms, the role of children in transmission, severity of the disease, and immunity). **What the sources confirm:** Scientific sources and official reports from that period (WHO, CDC, studies from Nature and Pulmonology) confirm that all the mentioned aspects indeed represented the main dilemmas and uncertainties of the medical community in the spring of 2020. **Limitations:** The analysis is strictly based on the state of scientific knowledge as of March 2020; subsequent developments of the pandemic have provided clear answers to many of these questions. **Conclusion:** The article accurately and balancedly presents the real scientific uncertainties from the early period of the pandemic, without resorting to misinformation or unfounded speculation. (Quality of sources: STRONG)

Sources consulted

• Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters | Pulmonology (journalpulmonology.org)
• Reconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained ... (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
• COVID‐19 severity: A new approach to quantifying global cases and deaths - PMC (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
• False cases of coronavirus have infected social media (poynter.org)
• Coronavirus Disease 2019 Case Surveillance — United States, January 22–May 30, 2020 | MMWR (cdc.gov)
• Underreporting of Cases in the COVID-19 Outbreak of Borriana ... (mdpi.com)
• What to know about the surprising MERS coronavirus cases discovered in France - Axios (axios.com)
• Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United ... (nature.com)

Recommended next steps

• Consultarea rapoartelor de sinteză ale OMS și CDC publicate în anii următori (2021-2024) pentru a vedea cum au fost soluționate aceste necunoscute.
• Verificarea studiilor de seroprevalență pe termen lung pentru stabilirea ratei reale a mortalității (IFR).

Analysis limitations

• Analiza reflectă exclusiv stadiul cunoașterii științifice din martie 2020. Multe dintre aceste necunoscute au fost clarificate în anii următori ai pandemiei.
• Descoperirea unor dovezi că datele prezentate ca necunoscute erau de fapt deja clarificate cu certitudine de comunitatea științifică la data de 31 martie 2020.