Șiruri de „lebede negre” plutesc deasupra mărilor și oceanelor lumii

The concept of 'black swans' describes unpredictable global events that can lead to significant consequences, particularly in maritime transport. Current threats include potential disruptions in oil supply from Kazakhstan due to Ukrainian attacks, which could exacerbate global supply crises. The simultaneous closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb could paralyze 30% of global oil traffic, prompting emergency measures like activating strategic reserves and redirecting shipping routes. The EU is particularly vulnerable, relying heavily on maritime routes for industrial goods and oil. The economic impact could be a 0.9% reduction in growth, with increased costs for transport and emergency oil reserves.