Indicatorul de Încredere Macroeconomică a crescut în iunie 2026, dar riscul de recesiune rămâne ridicat

The CFA Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator rose by 7.0 points in June 2026, reaching 37.5 points, driven by budget deficit reduction and relative calm regarding the Iran conflict. However, analysts warn of significant risks to the Romanian economy, predicting a GDP growth of only 0.1% for 2026. The projected budget deficit is 6.4% of GDP, with public debt expected to rise to 63%. Currency pressures persist, with 80% of respondents anticipating a depreciation of the leu against the euro. Inflation expectations for July 2027 increased slightly to 7.63%, while the 3-month ROBOR rate is forecasted at 6.00%. The real estate sector is viewed as overvalued by 75% of analysts, with expectations of price stagnation or decline.