Fenomenul El Niño ”super-puternic” şi scumpirea petrolului vor menține inflația sus - JP Morgan - Economica.net

The rapid intensification of El Niño, combined with rising energy prices, may increase global inflation by 0.3 percentage points next year, particularly affecting emerging markets, according to JPMorgan economists. The likelihood of a 'very strong' or 'super-strong' El Niño event is currently at 81%, with a 97% chance of these conditions persisting into next year. A super-strong El Niño could raise global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points at its peak. If combined with rising energy costs due to the Iran conflict, the impact on global food inflation could double to approximately 1.3-1.5 percentage points. Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are expected to bear the brunt of these effects, while advanced economies will experience a lesser impact.