Claudiu Cazacu, XTB: Euro ar putea ajunge la 5,5 lei dacă situația politică incertă continuă

The Romanian leu faces renewed pressure due to declining BNR reserves, a stronger dollar, and political uncertainty. This depreciation could impact import costs, credit, and consumption. The leu has depreciated against the euro twice in 2026, with current vulnerabilities heightened by investor caution. BNR's reserves have decreased significantly, prompting potential interventions to stabilize the currency. The dollar's appreciation affects the cost of imports and debt repayments, while rising interest rates may deter investments in lei. Analysts predict a possible exchange rate of 5.4-5.5 lei per euro by the end of 2027, with ongoing political instability likely to exacerbate currency pressures.