BNR: Economic recovery in second half of the year will be more modest than previously anticipated

The National Bank of Romania anticipates a modest economic recovery in the latter half of 2026, driven by agriculture, despite weaker performance compared to last year. The third quarter may see a decline in economic activity due to investment trends and a negative trade balance. The economy stagnated in Q2 2026 after a slight contraction in Q1, with investments helping to mitigate losses while household consumption fell. Uncertainties from global conflicts and energy crises pose risks to economic stability and inflation. The BNR maintained its monetary policy rates during the October meeting.