BNR decide joi dobânda cheie. Analiștii se așteaptă la o schimbare abia din mai 2027

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) is expected to maintain the key interest rate at 6.50% during its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Analysts from Erste Bank predict that this rate will remain unchanged until at least May 2027, citing persistent core inflation. They anticipate a potential upward revision of inflation forecasts due to recent currency depreciation and commodity price trends. The BNR's communication may reflect a shift towards prioritizing interest rate stability over exchange rate stability. The bank's governor indicated that rate cuts could be considered once inflation falls below the reference rate, likely early next year. Overall, Erste sees limited potential for further depreciation of the Romanian leu.