BNR: Inflația va scădea semnificativ în trimestrul al treilea

The annual inflation rate in Romania has started to decline since June, with significant reductions expected in the third quarter. This is attributed to the fading effects of price caps on electricity and increased VAT and excise duties. However, inflation is projected to remain slightly above previous estimates due to rising rents. The BNR forecasts inflation to reach 10.3% in June, decreasing to 5.5% by the end of 2026 and 2.7% by March 2028. Risks from gas prices and global conflicts persist, but factors like falling oil prices and a good agricultural year may help temper inflation. The BNR has decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 6.5%.